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Moldova: Country Election Risk Assessment (CERA)

Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), Alliance4Europe, Debunk.org

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Moldova: Country Election Risk Assessment (CERA)

Executive Summary

This Country Election Risk Assessment (CERA) evaluates Moldova’s vulnerabilities to hybrid threats and Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) in the context of the September 2025 parliamentary elections. The analysis finds that the overall pre-election risk level is high and rising, driven by intensifying influence campaigns, institutional capacity gaps, and persistent external destabilisation efforts.

The purpose of this assessment is to provide decision-makers, election authorities, civil society, and international partners with an evidence-based overview of systemic weaknesses and election-specific threats, enabling rapid and coordinated mitigation to safeguard electoral integrity. This report makes no determinations on legality.

Looking ahead, three scenarios are plausible. In the best case, disinformation and cyberattacks have a limited impact, diaspora turnout remains stable, and election results are broadly accepted. The base case anticipates heightened polarisation, moderate turnout suppression, and disputes over legitimacy that remain largely contained. The worst case envisions coordinated hybrid attacks triggering confusion, contested results, and prolonged post-election unrest.

Even with strong mitigation measures in place, the risks remain moderate to high due to Moldova’s structural vulnerabilities and Russia’s proven capabilities. Safeguarding Moldova’s elections will require urgent inter-agency coordination, closer engagement with digital platforms, and strengthened civil society monitoring. Transparent communication, rapid response mechanisms, and proactive diaspora outreach will be critical to maintaining public trust and ensuring stability before, during, and after election day.

This report was made possible through the FIMI-ISAC project ‘FIMI Defenders for Election Integrity’ and the Counter Disinformation Network infrastructure. Read more about these below.

About the Project:

This report evaluates Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) threats to the upcoming 2025 Moldovan Parliamentary elections. It was developed through the FIMI-ISAC project ‘FIMI Defenders for Election Integrity’. This project consortium brings together FIMI-ISAC members with the unparalleled expertise of 10 organisations to develop a multi-stakeholder FIMI framework for elections to effectively monitor, respond to and counter FIMI threats before and during elections, while at the same time strengthening FIMI defender communities and democratic institutions.

 

About the FIMI-ISAC:

The FIMI-ISAC (Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference Information Sharing and Analysis Center) is the first ISAC worldwide dedicated to fighting FIMI and creating common standards in this field. It unites a group of like-minded organisations that protect democratic societies, institutions, and the critical information infrastructures of democracy from external manipulation and harm. Through collaboration, the FIMI-ISAC enables its members to detect, analyse, and counter FIMI more rapidly and effectively while upholding the fundamental value of freedom of expression. The FIMI-ISAC does not act independently to counter FIMI. Instead, enhancing collaboration empowers its members to do so more effectively.

https://fimi-isac.org/

 

About the Counter Disinformation Network:

This report and project were facilitated through the Counter Disinformation Network (CDN).

The CDN is convened by Alliance4Europe and functions as a collaboration and crisis response platform, knowledge valorisation resource, and expert network, bringing together 60+ organisations and 330+ practitioners from OSINT, journalism, fact-checking, academia, policy, and strategic communication from 20 countries.

The network has been used to coordinate projects on 5 elections, providing researchers with an incident alert (IA) template, access to social listening tools, a collaboration and coordination platforms, a shared methodology, and an mailing list of actors who can address influence operations (e.g. regulators, ministries, media, and policymakers).

The network has produced 80+ incident alerts highlighting detected cases of information manipulation to authorities, policymakers, media, and advocacy organisations.

The CDN has so far managed to disrupt hundreds of Russian influence operation assets, address platform vulnerabilities, and highlight systemic risks, all made possible through contributions from a wide range of organisaitons.

For more information on the network, it’s methodology, and funding, please visit:
https://alliance4europe.eu/cdn

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